A Double-Sided Ceasefire

A Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire was agreed hours before Trump's Tuesday deadline, conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz — WTI crude crashed 19% from ~$117 to ~$95, the largest single-day drop in almost six years.

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Daily Updates:

• The US and Iran have agreed to a Pakistan-brokered “conditional” ceasefire, with Trump making the announcement just hours before his 8PM ET Tuesday deadline.

• The two week ceasefire is conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic during the two week ceasefire period – a fact not lost on Oil markets.

• WTI crude fell as much as 19% from an intraday high near $117 to ~$95 — the largest single-day drop in almost six years. Brent slid ~16% to ~$93. The swing erases the bulk of the geopolitical risk premium built over the past two weeks but does not return it to pre-war levels of $65 per barrel.