Crypto Markets Daily Dec 13, 2024

Macroeconomic data from jobs to inflation is sending mixed signals for the U.S. economy, making the last stretch against inflation increasingly difficult. This uneasiness is reflected in derivatives.

Mixed Jobs Signals

Markets still solidly expect the Fed to cut by 25bps next Wednesday, but yesterday’s mixed macro news has been slightly more difficult for markets to digest for expectations of the policy path beyond that final meeting of the year. This uneasiness has been reflected in crypto markets too.

Jobless claims data, showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly spiked up to 242,000 for the week ending Dec 7, above the 220,000 forecasted, and up 17,000 from the week prior. However, these numbers have been clouded in some volatility due to the Thanksgiving holiday that will likely continue over the Christmas break. When considered with the recent uptick in unemployment and increased time taken for Americans to find jobs shown in the NFP report, it raises questions regarding the underlying resilience of the labour market beyond the headline data points.