Block Scholes Research

Block Scholes Research

Is Bitcoin Finally Decoupling from Equity Markets?

This is not another post about tariffs and a global economic meltdown. We’re only interested in exploring these events through a crypto lens, and ultimately, what they mean for crypto assets.

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Andrew Melville
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Thahbib Rahman
Apr 08, 2025
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As you may have heard, the recent market selloff has turned into a global market meltdown. But this is not another post about tariffs and a global economic meltdown. We’re only interested in exploring these events through a crypto lens.

So where does BTC belong in that story? 

We’ve argued in several previous posts that BTC has fundamental tailwinds that should help it weather this macro storm. However, the storm has intensified since Trump’s Apr 2, 2025 Liberation Day tariff announcement, seeing BTC sink below $75K on Monday. So the real question is: are we at the point in this market meltdown where BTC fundamentals no longer matter—and all bets are off?

Firstly, BTC has held up remarkably well compared to US equities. Despite the S&P 500 more than erasing all of its gains post-November US election, BTC (though down 20% from its January ATH) has not yet pared back all of its post-election gains.

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Figure 1. BTC spot price (orange, left-hand axis) and SPX price (red, right-hand axis) since January 2024 with US election marked as a vertical dotted line. Sources: Bloomberg, Block Scholes

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