Block Scholes Research

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Block Scholes Research
Block Scholes Research
Jobs Jolt Crushes Cut Odds

Jobs Jolt Crushes Cut Odds

The June NFP report beat expectations with 147K jobs added and a surprise drop in unemployment to 4.1%.

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Andrew Melville
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Thahbib Rahman
Jul 04, 2025
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Block Scholes Research
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Jobs Jolt Crushes Cut Odds
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Daily Updates:

  • Yesterday’s Nonfarm payrolls report in the US has poured cold water on the odds of a July rate cut by the FOMC. Exactly one month ago, 30 day fed funds futures had priced in a 28.5% probability for a 25bps rate cut in July – those odds have now been crushed to a mere 4.7%. 

  • According to the report, the US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, far above the median expectation by Bloomberg economists, while the prior two months were revised higher by a cumulative 16,000 jobs. 

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